Who Israelis want as U.S. President

By Josh Pasek

Less than a week after new polling data shows that Israelis prefer Barack Obama by 37-28% (with 35% of Israelis undecided) [1], the RJC reposted an interview where one commentator said that Obama doesn’t have “what Israelis look for in a U.S. President” [2].  Sounds like that commentator is a little off on whether Obama has what Israelis want.  Indeed, Obama showed during his trip that he understands “the real security threats facing Israel and the United States” [2][3]. The bigger question may be whether McCain realizes that Iran is a much bigger threat than Iraq.  As we have previously mentioned, he has failed to press for serious sanctions in the past [4][5].

Media to RJC: Put Quotes in Context

By Josh Pasek

During his international trip, Obama used a speech in Jordan to show Jordanians how acts of terror could derail the search for peace.  In response to a question, Obama said:

And that’s why terrorism is so counterproductive, as well as being immoral, because it makes, I believe, the Israelis want to dig in and simply think about their own security regardless of what’s going on beyond their borders. I think the same would be true of any people when these kinds of things happen and innocent people are injured. [1]

 While Obama was using the speech to help Jordanians see an Israeli perspective, the RJC had a very different interpretation.  According to the RJC, who only published a misleading part of the quote, Obama was talking to Israelis and telling them to “put terrorism in context” [2].  This smear was so inaccurate that even the Jewish Telegraphic Agency jumped on the Republican Jewish Coalition [3].

Selecting Dots – The Art of Misrepresentation

By Josh Pasek

The Republican Jewish Coalition wants to tell everyone that they are “connecting the dots” when it comes to Obama and Israel.  They try to stress that what they are doing is putting together relevant facts that need to be “considered” rather than dismissed.  But when the RJC seeks to examine a record like Obama’s they never talk about the whole picture.  They ignore Obama’s voting record on Israel-related bills, disregard Obama’s actual mideast advisors like Dan Shapiro and Dannis McDonough, and make bold and often unsourced claims about Obama’s viewpoints [1].

It is no surprise that the RJC can find a couple of dots and weave them into a story that sounds incriminating.  Indeed, we could easily do the same with John McCain:

• McCain actively recruited the support of the controversial pastor John Hagee [2], who claimed that the Jews were at fault for both Jesus’ death and the Holocaust [3].
• Fred Malek, the man charged with counting the number of Jews in the Bureau of Labor statistics for Nixon [4], is a national finance co-chairman for McCain, who declared him “an inspiring public servant who has served our nation well” [5].
• McCain failed to support the Iran Sanctions Enabling Act which would have authorized state and local governments to divest from companies that invest in Iran [S.1430, thomas.loc.gov].  He similarly opposed a bill restricting business ties with Iran [6].
• McCain suggested in an interview with Haaretz that he would dispatch “Brent Scowcroft or James Baker” to deal with Israeli-Palestinian issues and that Israel should make “concessions and sacrifices” [7].
• Another McCain advisor, Thomas Loeffler, only left the campaign earlier this year when it became obvious that he was a critical lobbyist on behalf of Saudi Arabia [8].

How should we interpret these facts?  We could “connect the dots” like the RJC and start telling American Jews that McCain has bought into an eschatological vision, wants to compromise Israel’s security, or wants to keep tabs on all the Jews in government.  But we know that these very disturbing facts are not the whole story of John McCain.  It’s a shame that the RJC is only willing to pursue the dots that fulfill their ideological goals.  Indeed, the bigger picture tells a very different tale.

Iraq Benchmarks — The Current Status

By Josh Pasek

The Republican Jewish Coalition noted this week that there has been a lot less talk about our failing to meet the benchmarks set in Iraq of late.  They suggest that the lack of discussion is because we have been doing better [1].  

A May 12, 2008 report by the Congressional Research Service, however, suggests that relatively little progress has been made since September [2].  Most of the benchmarks were proposed for achievement in 2007 – now midway through 2008, the Iraqi government is beginning to talk about some of the benchmarks, but they still have not established authority over all of the provinces, created the promised autonomous regions, actually spent any of the $10 billion of Iraqi money promised for reconstruction, or yet held provincial elections [3].  Today’s news notes that the Iraqi’s have finally signed a stopgap set of oil deals, because the benchmark oil law still hasn’t been passed [4].

We all want to see an Iraqi democracy, but moving the goalposts and accepting Iraqi promises as facts are not the way to get there.

 

RJC Has A Breakthrough?

By Josh Pasek

The Republican Jewish Coalition today noticed that unfunded mandates may have negative implications for future taxation [1].  Does this mean that they have finally realized that deficit spending is not a panacea for all economic problems?  Perhaps that large portion of defense spending that they mention might have something to do with the war in Iraq?

Whatever caused this sudden realization, we at RJC Watch are looking forward to the “We Used to Be Republicans Until . . .” advertising campaign.

Plain and Simple – RJC Must Stop the Smear

By Marshall Spevak and Josh Pasek

The Republican Jewish Coalition needs to stop the smear campaign they are running against Senator Barack Obama.  In an interview the Atlantic, Barack Obama repeatedly reiterated his support for Israel and his belief that Israel’s enemies are America’s  enemies (1).  But in typical Republican Jewish Coalition fashion, the RJC released a press statement accusing Senator Obama of not standing with Israel against Hamas and question him on his “questionable grasp of foreign policy” (2). Time and time again Senator Obama has proven that he understands that in order to achieve peace you need not to just talk to your friends, but talk to your enemies.  Indeed, in that very interview, Obama said: “I welcome the Muslim world’s accurate perception that I am interested in opening up dialogue and interested in moving away from the unilateral policies of George Bush, but nobody should mistake that for a softer stance when it comes to terrorism or when it comes to protecting Israel’s security or making sure that the alliance is strong and firm.”  The sentiment is well reflected in a statement of Harry Truman’s: “The United States is not so strong, the final triumph of the democratic ideal is not so inevitable that we can ignore what the world thinks of us or our record.”

The Republican Jewish Coalition is making quite a stretch in trying to turn a clear and decisive denunciation of Hamas and the statement that “we should not be dealing with them until they recognize Israel, renounce terrorism, and abide by previous agreements” (3) into “excus[ing] the inexcusable actions of anti-American militant jihadists” (4).  We don’t think many other individuals reading the Atlantic article will come to the same conclusion as the RJC.

Electoral Prediction: It’s Not That Simple

By Josh Pasek

Republican Jews have begun to gloat about new Gallup numbers that show McCain losing to Obama among Jews by only a 30-point margin “If the election were held today.”  What they don’t seem to notice is those critical qualifiers at the end.  While Republicans have a single candidate who emerged unscathed from a clean and quick primary, Democrats are still in the middle of their primary season.  And both candidates have been relatively strongly hit.  So what does it mean that more Jewish voters are responding that they might choose McCain in a general election?  The answer is not much.

David Moore, a former senior editor at Gallup, explained in a Stanford University lecture last autumn that the “if the election were held today” language can be both confusing and biasing (1).  It, along with follow-up questions, strongly encourage undecided voters to choose a side often long before they are ready to do so.  In general election polling, this kind of technique usually inflates the number of voters for each candidate.  While only 30% of voters make up their mind by a month from the election, they often split somewhat similarly to the 70% of undecided voters who, if they truly had to make a choice “today,” will give a response — however considered.  In a primary, however, we can expect the influence of this type of polling to be much more biased.  The survey technique is almost guaranteed to inflate McCain’s numbers as compared to either Democrat.

RJC Distorts Results of Gallup Poll

By Matt Rozsa

A recent report from Republican Jewish Coalition Executive Director Matt Brooks distorts the results of a new Gallup Poll:

“The just released Gallup poll of Jewish voters is another important indicator of the ongoing troubles Barack Obama has with Jewish voters. In the poll of Jewish voters (conducted April 1-30), it showed Obama getting only 61% of the Jewish vote against John McCain (32%). By comparison, in 2004, John Kerry received 75% of the Jewish vote and George W. Bush received 25%. The recent polling numbers demonstrate Obama’s weakness among Jewish voters. This data comes on the heels of the exit poll data from the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton beat Obama among Jewish voters 62% – 38%,” said Brooks. “These results show that the American Jewish community is troubled by what they know of Barack Obama, his views and his positions. The RJC remains confident that John McCain will continue the trend of the GOP making inroads among Jewish voters.”

In fact, when Gallup analyzed its own poll, it came to the conclusion that “Barack Obama is faring better than might be expected among Jewish voters, beating John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily general-election matchups.” Elaborating on this, Gallup explains that “rather than declining between March and April, support for Obama versus McCain among Jewish voters has increased slightly, from a 23-point margin in favor of Obama (58% to 35%) to a 29-point margin (61% to 32%).” Finally, it is worth noting that, according to Gallup, “Jewish voters nationwide are nearly as likely to say they would vote for Obama if he were the Democratic nominee running against the Republican McCain (61%), as to say they would vote for Clinton (66%).” – Gallup Poll

Considering how honesty is often a rare commodity in election seasons, it is unfortunate that the RJC would put such a deceptive spin on Gallup’s statistics (to make McCain seem more successful with Jewish vote that the reality shows), particularly one that flies in the face of Gallup’s own interpretation of its findings.